The glimmering mirage of future AI
February 2026
I believe that the real disruption from AI isn’t the LLMs themselves, but rather the changes to society as we anticipate a future purely based on speculation.
The hype is the disruption.
Here is what I feel like I’m seeing.
The scapegoat
AI is being used as a “non-human enemy”. I’ve already seen corporations blame AI for layoffs when, in reality, the technology has very little to do with it. It’s an easy, bloodless excuse for traditional economic restructuring that only reinforces a very deep-seated fear that AI is coming for your job.
The shortage
When a profession is publicly marked as at risk or doomed by AI, school leavers will think twice about entering that field. Whether or not AI actually takes over that profession is only speculation, but this speculation alone has an effect. If the hype is wrong, we may find ourselves facing a shortage of professionals in essential fields because we scared an entire generation away.
The hollow middle
AI will increase the volume of cheap goods – cheap software, cheap copy, cheap design. You can see this already. I expect the middle of the market to get crowded with good enough AI output. In contrast, the top of the market will belong to those who can provide what the machine cannot: nuance, soul, and accountability.
The gatekeepers
For years, I’ve watched the “open-source” and “share-your-process” culture flourish, especially in tech. But as our documentation, open networks, and public processes are essentially the training data for the machines meant to ”replace us“, I imagine that professional gatekeeping will become much more common.
If a specific workflow or specialised process is what differentiates you from the masses or the AI, you may have a survival incentive to keep it hidden.
The expectation
You can do this much quicker because of AI, right? Expectations aren’t based on the experience of the tool. It's based on a demo, a headline, or something someone read on a Sunday morning.
When a founder stands on stage and talks about software that doesn't exist, it used to be called vaporware. With AI, nobody says that word anymore. “Unbuilt” is now “inevitable”. In the meantime, we may well be gutting the middle, stacking the top, and burning the ladder for those at the bottom.